The Kondratieff Wave
The Kondratieff Wave is an economic theory that proposes capitalist economies are susceptible to extreme performance volatility as they expand and contract over the years. Unlike what is referred to as the business cycle, the Kondratieff Wave holds that these periods of expansion and contraction are part of much longer cycles lasting 50-60 years and that each one of these super-cycle periods repeat in much the same fashion. The material offered here on the Kondratieff Wave theory will establish that the ebb and flow of all economic output and stock performance over time are both governed through the interaction of the universal forces of nature. One could say they can be identified and observed as readily as we see and feel the seasons change every year.
In fact, Kondratieff categorized the different segments of each cycle as seasons beginning with spring, summer, autumn, and finally winter. Each season of approximately 15 years contained certain features that would occur in each successive cycle. Careful examination of the economic data since the mid-1750’s makes it clear to any observer that these features are indeed evident and our content will show you why this is no coincidence.
What is so important about studying economic data going back several centuries? Only by examining this pattern can we truly appreciate the coherence of its structure. Knowing this pattern enables us to make better decisions today in our economic and societal planning. Sadly, our leaders and society as a whole has never seen fit to seek such an approach to policy-making that utilizes the wisdom of long wave economic super cycles.
So naturally, our leaders react to the defining events of each generation instead of accounting for them in advance. An approach to planning and decision-making that denies that our activities, output, and human condition are governed by natural cycles plays a fool’s hand and fails to best serve the public’s needs. We hope that through the material presented here we can make a cogent case for the practical application of these concepts for the benefit of our welfare. Hopefully, our readers will see the urgent need for radical reform of our policies with twilight of the K- Winter season now upon us.