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Elliott Wave

Robert Prechter Goes All in and I’m Right Behind

This could have easily come from my mouth but instead comes from David Waggoner, a writer on Minyanville I came come to like. Here Waggoner dissects Prechter’s career and methodology in the most fair and balanced way I’ve seen yet. This guy gets it- he zooms right in on framing Prechter’s juxtaposition as the most proficient forecaster to get lampooned since Nostrdomas. But what I like is his the way he methodically breaks down Prechter’s model to show that the outcomes that his detractors claim as failures were actually well within the Fibonacci proportions at the core of EW theory.

What happens in these instances is that waves subdivide as a result of world events and human decisions. But these only temporarily delay the inevitable outcome, which on a fractal basis, is somewhat pre-determined. He only got it wrong once- in 1995 calling the peak- and yet the real peak in absolute terms was a few short years away. Let’s not forget he called the bull market of the 1980’s as an analyst for Merrill Lynch, the crash of 1987, the crash of 2007-8 AND perhaps to the chagrin of his detractors the counter-trend rally in March 2009. How can a guy batting .800 not make it to the Hall of Fame?

Some of the key conclusions made by Waggoner are really on the mark. He posts certain charts here I’ve never seen that extend back to the year 1000 (millennial cycle) and it parses the trajectory between that super-cycle, the grand super-cycle that began in 1775, and the most recent super-cycle that began in the 1930’s. This correlates precisely with the material on grand super-cycle I have posted in the Mayan section of my site under Power seed the K-Wave tab. There I provide a chart and a narrative that parses the super-cycle from the grand super-cycle that pivoted in the mid 18th century when power became the predominant force driving mankind.

Waggoner concludes by providing some of the key methodology underlying the fractal structure of the wave formations measured through long term stock charts. The scared geometry of the Elliott Wave indicates no other path is possible other than a market crash because the options for waves to subdivide out further has reached its exhaustive limit.

4 Responses to “Elliott Wave”

  • Thx for the response. My answer to you is this- I have made a conscious decision in the past several months not to emphasize the EW model for one very simple reason- it has been very poor at forecasting performance in the market sin the short time for almost tow years now and that stings. As I asserted last month in my monthly comments, EW theory is best suited for the big picture long term snapshot and is not so well suited for short term market timing, especially at market cycle pivots such as these times. But please know this- once the P3 wave down from the EW is confirmed, I will shift from not asserting it to blathering about it every day. P3 down is the event of our lifetime and I won’t be shy about EW then. Just not right at this juncture.

    Peter

  • thanks very much for the comments. Feel free to reach out to me anytime at peter@kondratieffwinter.com

    Peter

  • thanks very much. New month comments posted tonight.

    Peter

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