Posts Tagged ‘long range forecasts’
MUST READ! Footprints Of The Future
The expose below is a study of the use of timelines to help determine long range forecasts. It was authored by Peter von Stackelberg with the futurist consulting firm Social Technologies. More of their work can be found at www.socialtachnologies.com.
Von Stackelberg’s piece asserts that by laying cycles, waves, logistics curves,
and other archetypal patterns over historical data, we can better understand
the dynamics of social, political, and technological change that will shape our
future. His premise that complex systems exhibit cyclical behavior correlates
nicely with our Kondratieff Wave theme. In one section he integrates the K-Wave
to complement his timeline data to reveal some interesting correlations regarding
the K-Wave and petroleum production since 1960. It suggests that the energy
cycle consistently appears to lead the K-Wave over time.
He also explores the temporal and causal relationships between the K-Wave
and historical events and distinguishes between traditional and exploratory forecasts. I found this material to be very helpful in relating the Kondratieff Wave to a more practical approach to long range economic forecasting and thus is very relevant content for our readers.